A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
