Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
